Changing demographic rates

Eric J. Ward

2026-02-03

Approach

We can calculate trends in demographic rates (survival, fecundity) for this dataset, using a framework similar to that described in the PFMC Working Group reports.

Survival

The estimated survival rates are shown in Fig. 1.

Figure 1: Estimated survival rates for 20-year old males and females in the SRKW population. Ribbons represent 95% CIs.

Fecundity

The estimated fecundity rates are shown in Fig. 2.

Figure 2: Estimated fecundity rates for 20-year females in the SRKW population. Ribbons represent 95% CIs.

Table 1: Estimated time-varying survival rates for 20-year old female and male killer whales from the SRKW population.

year	sexF1M2	age	Sex	survival	lo	hi
1976	1	20	Female	0.988	0.974	0.995
1977	1	20	Female	0.988	0.975	0.994
1978	1	20	Female	0.988	0.975	0.994
1979	1	20	Female	0.988	0.976	0.994
1980	1	20	Female	0.987	0.976	0.993
1981	1	20	Female	0.987	0.976	0.993
1982	1	20	Female	0.987	0.976	0.993
1983	1	20	Female	0.987	0.976	0.993
1984	1	20	Female	0.986	0.976	0.992
1985	1	20	Female	0.986	0.977	0.992
1986	1	20	Female	0.986	0.976	0.992
1987	1	20	Female	0.986	0.976	0.992
1988	1	20	Female	0.986	0.976	0.991
1989	1	20	Female	0.986	0.976	0.991
1990	1	20	Female	0.985	0.976	0.991
1991	1	20	Female	0.985	0.976	0.991
1992	1	20	Female	0.985	0.976	0.991
1993	1	20	Female	0.985	0.976	0.991
1994	1	20	Female	0.985	0.976	0.990
1995	1	20	Female	0.985	0.976	0.990
1996	1	20	Female	0.985	0.976	0.990
1997	1	20	Female	0.985	0.976	0.990
1998	1	20	Female	0.985	0.976	0.990
1999	1	20	Female	0.985	0.976	0.990
2000	1	20	Female	0.985	0.976	0.990
2001	1	20	Female	0.985	0.976	0.990
2002	1	20	Female	0.985	0.976	0.990
2003	1	20	Female	0.985	0.976	0.990
2004	1	20	Female	0.985	0.977	0.990
2005	1	20	Female	0.985	0.977	0.991
2006	1	20	Female	0.985	0.977	0.991
2007	1	20	Female	0.986	0.977	0.991
2008	1	20	Female	0.986	0.978	0.991
2009	1	20	Female	0.986	0.978	0.991
2010	1	20	Female	0.986	0.978	0.991
2011	1	20	Female	0.987	0.979	0.991
2012	1	20	Female	0.987	0.979	0.992
2013	1	20	Female	0.987	0.979	0.992
2014	1	20	Female	0.987	0.980	0.992
2015	1	20	Female	0.988	0.980	0.992
2016	1	20	Female	0.988	0.981	0.993
2017	1	20	Female	0.988	0.981	0.993
2018	1	20	Female	0.989	0.981	0.993
2019	1	20	Female	0.989	0.982	0.994
2020	1	20	Female	0.990	0.982	0.994
2021	1	20	Female	0.990	0.982	0.994
2022	1	20	Female	0.990	0.983	0.995
2023	1	20	Female	0.991	0.983	0.995
2024	1	20	Female	0.991	0.983	0.995
2025	1	20	Female	0.991	0.983	0.996
2026	1	20	Female	0.992	0.983	0.996
1976	2	20	Male	0.977	0.949	0.990
1977	2	20	Male	0.977	0.950	0.989
1978	2	20	Male	0.976	0.951	0.989
1979	2	20	Male	0.976	0.952	0.988
1980	2	20	Male	0.975	0.952	0.987
1981	2	20	Male	0.975	0.953	0.987
1982	2	20	Male	0.974	0.953	0.986
1983	2	20	Male	0.974	0.953	0.985
1984	2	20	Male	0.973	0.953	0.985
1985	2	20	Male	0.973	0.954	0.984
1986	2	20	Male	0.973	0.954	0.984
1987	2	20	Male	0.972	0.954	0.983
1988	2	20	Male	0.972	0.954	0.983
1989	2	20	Male	0.971	0.954	0.983
1990	2	20	Male	0.971	0.953	0.982
1991	2	20	Male	0.971	0.953	0.982
1992	2	20	Male	0.971	0.953	0.982
1993	2	20	Male	0.970	0.953	0.981
1994	2	20	Male	0.970	0.953	0.981
1995	2	20	Male	0.970	0.953	0.981
1996	2	20	Male	0.970	0.953	0.981
1997	2	20	Male	0.970	0.953	0.980
1998	2	20	Male	0.970	0.953	0.980
1999	2	20	Male	0.970	0.954	0.980
2000	2	20	Male	0.970	0.954	0.980
2001	2	20	Male	0.970	0.954	0.980
2002	2	20	Male	0.970	0.955	0.980
2003	2	20	Male	0.970	0.955	0.980
2004	2	20	Male	0.971	0.956	0.981
2005	2	20	Male	0.971	0.956	0.981
2006	2	20	Male	0.971	0.957	0.981
2007	2	20	Male	0.972	0.958	0.981
2008	2	20	Male	0.972	0.958	0.981
2009	2	20	Male	0.972	0.959	0.982
2010	2	20	Male	0.973	0.960	0.982
2011	2	20	Male	0.973	0.960	0.982
2012	2	20	Male	0.974	0.961	0.983
2013	2	20	Male	0.975	0.962	0.983
2014	2	20	Male	0.975	0.963	0.984
2015	2	20	Male	0.976	0.963	0.984
2016	2	20	Male	0.976	0.964	0.985
2017	2	20	Male	0.977	0.965	0.985
2018	2	20	Male	0.978	0.965	0.986
2019	2	20	Male	0.979	0.966	0.987
2020	2	20	Male	0.979	0.967	0.987
2021	2	20	Male	0.980	0.967	0.988
2022	2	20	Male	0.981	0.967	0.989
2023	2	20	Male	0.982	0.968	0.989
2024	2	20	Male	0.982	0.968	0.990
2025	2	20	Male	0.983	0.968	0.991
2026	2	20	Male	0.984	0.968	0.992

Table 2: Estimated time-varying fecundity rates for 20-year old female killer whales from the SRKW population. The ‘lo’ and ‘hi’ values represent 95% confidence intervals

year	age	fecundity	lo	hi
1976	20	0.227	0.124	0.378
1977	20	0.225	0.127	0.367
1978	20	0.224	0.131	0.356
1979	20	0.223	0.135	0.346
1980	20	0.221	0.138	0.336
1981	20	0.220	0.141	0.327
1982	20	0.219	0.144	0.319
1983	20	0.218	0.147	0.311
1984	20	0.217	0.149	0.303
1985	20	0.215	0.152	0.297
1986	20	0.214	0.154	0.290
1987	20	0.213	0.155	0.285
1988	20	0.212	0.157	0.280
1989	20	0.210	0.158	0.275
1990	20	0.209	0.159	0.270
1991	20	0.208	0.159	0.266
1992	20	0.206	0.159	0.263
1993	20	0.205	0.159	0.259
1994	20	0.203	0.159	0.256
1995	20	0.201	0.158	0.253
1996	20	0.199	0.157	0.250
1997	20	0.198	0.156	0.247
1998	20	0.196	0.154	0.245
1999	20	0.194	0.153	0.243
2000	20	0.192	0.151	0.240
2001	20	0.190	0.150	0.238
2002	20	0.188	0.148	0.235
2003	20	0.185	0.146	0.233
2004	20	0.183	0.143	0.230
2005	20	0.180	0.141	0.227
2006	20	0.177	0.138	0.224
2007	20	0.174	0.136	0.221
2008	20	0.171	0.133	0.218
2009	20	0.168	0.130	0.215
2010	20	0.165	0.127	0.212
2011	20	0.161	0.123	0.208
2012	20	0.158	0.120	0.205
2013	20	0.154	0.116	0.201
2014	20	0.150	0.113	0.198
2015	20	0.146	0.109	0.194
2016	20	0.143	0.105	0.191
2017	20	0.139	0.101	0.188
2018	20	0.135	0.097	0.185
2019	20	0.131	0.093	0.183
2020	20	0.128	0.089	0.181
2021	20	0.124	0.084	0.179
2022	20	0.121	0.080	0.177
2023	20	0.117	0.076	0.176
2024	20	0.114	0.072	0.175
2025	20	0.110	0.068	0.175
2026	20	0.107	0.064	0.174