Changing demographic rates

Eric J. Ward

2025-01-13

Source: vignettes/a2demogrates.Rmd

Approach

We can calculate trends in demographic rates (survival, fecundity) for this dataset, using a framework similar to that described in the PFMC Working Group reports.

Survival

Figure 1. Estimated survival rates for 20-year old males and females in the SRKW population. Ribbons represent 95% CIs.

Fecundity

Figure 2. Estimated fecundity rates for 20-year females in the SRKW population. Ribbons represent 95% CIs.

Table 1. Estimated time-varying survival rates for 20-year old female and male killer whales from the SRKW population. The ‘lo’ and ‘hi’ values represent 95% confidence intervals.

year sexF1M2 age Sex survival lo hi
1976 1 20 Female 0.988 0.974 0.994
1977 1 20 Female 0.988 0.974 0.994
1978 1 20 Female 0.987 0.975 0.994
1979 1 20 Female 0.987 0.975 0.993
1980 1 20 Female 0.987 0.975 0.993
1981 1 20 Female 0.987 0.976 0.993
1982 1 20 Female 0.987 0.976 0.993
1983 1 20 Female 0.986 0.976 0.992
1984 1 20 Female 0.986 0.976 0.992
1985 1 20 Female 0.986 0.976 0.992
1986 1 20 Female 0.986 0.976 0.992
1987 1 20 Female 0.986 0.976 0.992
1988 1 20 Female 0.986 0.977 0.991
1989 1 20 Female 0.986 0.977 0.991
1990 1 20 Female 0.986 0.977 0.991
1991 1 20 Female 0.985 0.976 0.991
1992 1 20 Female 0.985 0.976 0.991
1993 1 20 Female 0.985 0.976 0.991
1994 1 20 Female 0.985 0.976 0.991
1995 1 20 Female 0.985 0.976 0.991
1996 1 20 Female 0.985 0.976 0.991
1997 1 20 Female 0.985 0.977 0.991
1998 1 20 Female 0.985 0.977 0.991
1999 1 20 Female 0.985 0.977 0.991
2000 1 20 Female 0.985 0.977 0.991
2001 1 20 Female 0.985 0.977 0.991
2002 1 20 Female 0.985 0.977 0.991
2003 1 20 Female 0.986 0.977 0.991
2004 1 20 Female 0.986 0.978 0.991
2005 1 20 Female 0.986 0.978 0.991
2006 1 20 Female 0.986 0.978 0.991
2007 1 20 Female 0.986 0.978 0.991
2008 1 20 Female 0.986 0.979 0.991
2009 1 20 Female 0.987 0.979 0.991
2010 1 20 Female 0.987 0.979 0.992
2011 1 20 Female 0.987 0.979 0.992
2012 1 20 Female 0.987 0.980 0.992
2013 1 20 Female 0.987 0.980 0.992
2014 1 20 Female 0.988 0.980 0.992
2015 1 20 Female 0.988 0.980 0.993
2016 1 20 Female 0.988 0.981 0.993
2017 1 20 Female 0.989 0.981 0.993
2018 1 20 Female 0.989 0.981 0.993
2019 1 20 Female 0.989 0.981 0.994
2020 1 20 Female 0.989 0.982 0.994
2021 1 20 Female 0.990 0.982 0.994
2022 1 20 Female 0.990 0.982 0.995
2023 1 20 Female 0.990 0.982 0.995
2024 1 20 Female 0.991 0.982 0.995
2025 1 20 Female 0.991 0.982 0.995
1976 2 20 Male 0.975 0.946 0.988
1977 2 20 Male 0.974 0.947 0.988
1978 2 20 Male 0.974 0.948 0.987
1979 2 20 Male 0.973 0.948 0.987
1980 2 20 Male 0.973 0.949 0.986
1981 2 20 Male 0.973 0.950 0.985
1982 2 20 Male 0.972 0.950 0.985
1983 2 20 Male 0.972 0.951 0.984
1984 2 20 Male 0.972 0.951 0.984
1985 2 20 Male 0.971 0.951 0.983
1986 2 20 Male 0.971 0.951 0.983
1987 2 20 Male 0.971 0.952 0.983
1988 2 20 Male 0.971 0.952 0.982
1989 2 20 Male 0.970 0.952 0.982
1990 2 20 Male 0.970 0.952 0.981
1991 2 20 Male 0.970 0.952 0.981
1992 2 20 Male 0.970 0.952 0.981
1993 2 20 Male 0.970 0.952 0.981
1994 2 20 Male 0.969 0.952 0.980
1995 2 20 Male 0.969 0.952 0.980
1996 2 20 Male 0.969 0.953 0.980
1997 2 20 Male 0.969 0.953 0.980
1998 2 20 Male 0.969 0.953 0.980
1999 2 20 Male 0.969 0.953 0.980
2000 2 20 Male 0.970 0.954 0.980
2001 2 20 Male 0.970 0.954 0.980
2002 2 20 Male 0.970 0.955 0.980
2003 2 20 Male 0.970 0.955 0.980
2004 2 20 Male 0.970 0.956 0.980
2005 2 20 Male 0.971 0.956 0.980
2006 2 20 Male 0.971 0.957 0.981
2007 2 20 Male 0.971 0.957 0.981
2008 2 20 Male 0.972 0.958 0.981
2009 2 20 Male 0.972 0.959 0.981
2010 2 20 Male 0.973 0.959 0.982
2011 2 20 Male 0.973 0.960 0.982
2012 2 20 Male 0.974 0.961 0.982
2013 2 20 Male 0.974 0.961 0.983
2014 2 20 Male 0.975 0.962 0.983
2015 2 20 Male 0.975 0.962 0.984
2016 2 20 Male 0.976 0.963 0.984
2017 2 20 Male 0.976 0.963 0.985
2018 2 20 Male 0.977 0.964 0.985
2019 2 20 Male 0.977 0.964 0.986
2020 2 20 Male 0.978 0.964 0.986
2021 2 20 Male 0.979 0.965 0.987
2022 2 20 Male 0.979 0.965 0.988
2023 2 20 Male 0.980 0.965 0.988
2024 2 20 Male 0.980 0.965 0.989
2025 2 20 Male 0.981 0.965 0.990

Table 2. Estimated time-varying fecundity rates for 20-year old female killer whales from the SRKW population. The ‘lo’ and ‘hi’ values represent 95% confidence intervals.

year age fecundity lo hi
1976 20 0.222 0.117 0.381
1977 20 0.221 0.121 0.369
1978 20 0.220 0.125 0.357
1979 20 0.219 0.129 0.346
1980 20 0.218 0.133 0.336
1981 20 0.217 0.136 0.326
1982 20 0.216 0.140 0.317
1983 20 0.215 0.143 0.309
1984 20 0.213 0.146 0.302
1985 20 0.212 0.148 0.295
1986 20 0.211 0.151 0.288
1987 20 0.210 0.153 0.283
1988 20 0.209 0.154 0.277
1989 20 0.208 0.156 0.273
1990 20 0.207 0.156 0.268
1991 20 0.206 0.157 0.264
1992 20 0.204 0.157 0.261
1993 20 0.203 0.157 0.258
1994 20 0.201 0.157 0.255
1995 20 0.199 0.156 0.252
1996 20 0.198 0.155 0.249
1997 20 0.196 0.154 0.247
1998 20 0.194 0.152 0.244
1999 20 0.192 0.151 0.242
2000 20 0.190 0.149 0.239
2001 20 0.188 0.147 0.237
2002 20 0.186 0.145 0.235
2003 20 0.184 0.143 0.232
2004 20 0.181 0.141 0.230
2005 20 0.178 0.139 0.227
2006 20 0.176 0.136 0.224
2007 20 0.172 0.133 0.220
2008 20 0.169 0.130 0.217
2009 20 0.166 0.127 0.213
2010 20 0.162 0.124 0.210
2011 20 0.158 0.120 0.206
2012 20 0.154 0.116 0.202
2013 20 0.150 0.112 0.198
2014 20 0.146 0.108 0.194
2015 20 0.142 0.104 0.190
2016 20 0.138 0.100 0.187
2017 20 0.134 0.096 0.184
2018 20 0.130 0.091 0.181
2019 20 0.126 0.087 0.178
2020 20 0.122 0.083 0.176
2021 20 0.118 0.078 0.174
2022 20 0.114 0.074 0.172
2023 20 0.110 0.069 0.171
2024 20 0.107 0.065 0.170
2025 20 0.103 0.061 0.170